The media is increasingly talking about riots in one or another corner of the world. Conflicts occur both at the level of gangs and between heads of state, and this is fraught with global military clashes. At the level of modern weapons, any war will be bloody and destructive, leveling the city, leaving widows, widows, orphans.

Some believe that World War 3 has been going on for a long time and it is informational, when facts are distorted, half-truths are presented as truth, and lies are presented as an alternative point of view. Slander is not as harmless as it seems at first glance in any country there are, on the basis of false evidence, illegally convicted.

If a global intergovernmental conflict is brewing, everything can end in military action. So, will World War 3 start in 2020? What do famous clairvoyants, psychics, monastics, astrologers of the present and past think about this?

In the twentieth century Vanga was the most famous clairvoyant. Both ordinary people and the government elite came to her for advice. After her death, years later, scientists analyzed how accurately her predictions came true and it turned out that over 80% of what she predicted came true. According to researchers, this is a very high percentage, which indicates Vanga's undoubted prophetic gift.

Clairvoyant predictions for 2020:

1. Vanga said that from 2020 China will become the world superpower. Those countries that used to be leaders will fall into various economic dependencies, the standard of living of citizens in them will fall.
2. From 2020, trains on wires will rush towards the sun. Interpreters think that she meant the invention of some new engines powered by solar energy.
3. The clairvoyant warned of Syria, in which there would be a war. It will fall and this will be the beginning of World War 3.
4. Vanga said that from 2020 oil will no longer be produced all over the world and the earth will rest.

The monastic claimed that in 2020 the people of the Russian Federation would unite. He predicted the beginning of the war this year. Abel believed that the dark time would last no more, a lot - 9 years.

Experts and in our time are arguing how to decipher this or that quatrain of Nostradamus? The prophet looked 5 centuries into the future. Reality has changed so much that no wonder Nostradamus could not understand something, describe it incorrectly, make a mistake somewhere.

There are no specific dates in the quatrains, as the states about which the story is told are called, there are many allegories in the quatrains, but the researchers manage to guess what the prophet was talking about. This is especially true of key and significant events that have already taken place. Here is what is to be experienced in the near and more distant future:

• Experts deciphered that the prophet predicted floods in Europe in 2020. Why will they happen? Because of the showers, which will pour without stopping, 2 months. From one quatrain, which mentions the enemy in red, experts concluded that countries located near the seas of the oceans and whose flag has red color will suffer more than others. This is Italy, with the Czech Republic, Hungary, with Montenegro, England.
• In early June 2020, severe fires will break out across Russia. Before they are eliminated, the center will be scorched. Why will this happen? Due to abnormal heat both in Russia and around the world. To hide from stuffiness and heat, people will begin to move to the northern regions for permanent residence. There is another interpretation of the sizzling rays. Researchers assure that one of the bandit groups from the Middle East will use chemical weapons.
• In the East, an armed conflict will break out again, as a result of which many military and civilians will die. European leaders will act rashly and war will break out in a number of other countries. The conflict between those who profess Christianity and different denominations will escalate.

3 world will cover the entire planet. Nostradamus believed that Siberia would become the center of civilization at that time. People from all over the world will come to live in Russia and the country, along with China, will be the strongest in the world.

How did Wolf Messing see the future?

Many are sorry that no one wrote down the predictions for Messing. The prophecies have been lost because of this, and others have an unclear chronology, but researchers say that there is something for 2020.

Will World War 3 happen? Messing, believed that no, but predicted various achievements and changes for humanity.

According to the prophet, America in 2020 will begin hostilities in the East. It will be the mistake of those in power. There will be a recession in the economy, tension among the people will increase. In addition, America will suffer from various natural disasters.

Taiwan, a natural disaster will befall Japan, but Messing did not specify what exactly would happen. Due to instability in the EU countries, the euro will fall.

Predictions of the Matrona of Moscow

Many Orthodox believers revere the Matrona of Moscow. Much was revealed to her spiritually. She knew that the house of the Romanovs would fall and in 1917 a revolution would take place.

It was open to mother and the beginning of the Great Patriotic War, the Second World War. Researchers claim that her ominous prediction will affect our days and people will begin to die when there is officially no war, they will be alive in the evening, and in the morning everyone will be dead. Some researchers think that Matrona meant some kind of spiritual death of the people, others are inclined that such a number of sudden deaths indicates an earthquake or an atomic explosion.

Prediction of the future by Jonah of Odessa

The monastic elder said that no one would attack Russia in the future. Do not be afraid of aggression from the United States.

Batiushka claimed that World War 3 would begin to emerge in a country smaller than the Russian Federation. There, there will be internal unrest and a civil war will break out. The Russian Federation, with the USA and other countries will take part in it - this will be the beginning of World War 3.

By the way, Archimandrite Jonah from Odessa claimed that he would die, 1 year would pass, and those sorrowful events would begin. Indeed, he reposed in December 2012. A year has passed in Ukraine, unrest began, there was a “Euro Maidan” ...

Prediction of astrologer Pavel Globa

He believes that in 2020 Russia is not threatened with anything more than sanctions. There is a cold war going on in the world.

The US and Europe are expected to increase the unemployment rate, their currencies will fall in price. In the world, the EU will no longer be such an influential union as before.

Globa in 2020-2021 does not foresee World War 3. Military clashes will continue to arise in certain countries.

There is a decline in the West, and the Russian Federation during this period will attract, unite and influence the countries that were part of the USSR in the past. More and more natural disasters will arise in the world due to the riots of nature, and countries will support each other to the best of their ability.

Under the Third World War is meant a global military conflict. To date, questions such as "Will there be a third world war and when will it start" are no longer fantastic inventions, but quite real fears of citizens. In addition, now, given the growing tension on the world stage, such issues are more relevant than ever.

All prerequisites in the world lead to a new vast war. It would seem that in our time the word "Third World War" no one will ever pronounce, because this very concept seems to have been erased with the liquidation of the "evil empire". And, it seems, there is no one with whom to wage a continental struggle (as it was in World War II) or a nuclear one (it is assumed that this is how the Third will take place).

Someone thinks in images and imagines the Third World War like this: trenches, cracks in the black, incinerated earth, the “enemy” somewhere beyond the horizon ... These ideas are written off and formulated on the basis of many films and stories about the terrible and so distant war of our fathers and grandfathers. This is the Great Patriotic War. Or World War II. But World War III will not be like that.

Many are convinced that a future war is already underway. The media, at least daily and tirelessly, with the importunity of a bored fly, tell us about it. The so-called information battle. So who are we fighting and why? History repeats itself, bringing to the world a new global conflict over land ownership. However, now this land, in addition to the population and territories, must have another important quality: resources.

Gas, coal, oil. This raw material is the engine of all the economies of the world. And the central actors in a future war, experts believe, will be “sworn friends” - two powers that have every opportunity to destroy each other and the entire planet using their stocks of nuclear weapons.

Where to expect war

Do not think that the threat should be expected from Europe. She is busy with deep introspection and elimination of "economic fleas". Europe poses no danger to Russia. The true enemy will come from afar, he will come from across the ocean. It is unlikely that anyone will be surprised by the assumption, because ever since the Fulton speech in 1946, the future enemy has been clearly defined and his name is no secret to anyone in Russia.

It would seem, well, what does America care about us? What will Russia do wrong again? What benefit will the United States want to extract and what will it try to teach the “simple Russian peasant”? The answer is simple - the resources and, perhaps, the ambitions of an equally powerful country that does not tolerate competition.

Also, one should not forget the "peacemaker" represented by the EU. Now this peacemaker is more like a provocateur who cheerfully dances to the tune of the United States. As if echoing from the countries of Europe, a repetition of the exclamations of the United States is heard - sanctions, sanctions, sanctions again and ... the Third World War.

The global integration of societies and economies has led to the wide scale and inevitability of a new war that will engulf the whole world. The ability to receive news practically "firsthand", online or thanks to satellite television, has given humanity an amazing privilege to learn everything much faster than a dozen years ago.

It is worth noting, however, that the flow of information pouring completely discouraged people from the desire to critically evaluate and analyze the events and facts provided. After all, for most users, a string of democratic revolutions, coups d'état and local military clashes are simply disparate parts of world politics that will eventually become history.

But is it? This is a question that will remain unanswered. Whether we believe in Freemasons, "world puppeteers" and "almighty rulers of the entire planet", whether we rely on the sanity and prudence of the rulers in using or not using nuclear weapons - all this does not affect the events taking place in the world.

It is quite possible that the Third World War is just being conducted only on computer monitors, televisions and in the headphones of radio lovers. But the fact that it is already beginning, unleashing, as if in a spiral, a global conflict is a fact.

At the same time, armed conflicts of a local nature in different parts of the world clearly tell us that the Third World War is not far off, the only question remains - when will it begin. It should also be understood that this will not simply be a military conflict on a global scale, but, quite possibly, a real nuclear war, the result of which could be the almost complete extinction of mankind.

In accordance with the conspiracy theory, the Freemasons intend to reduce the number of people on the planet to 1 billion. According to members of the secret society, it is precisely this number of inhabitants that will be optimal for reasonable consumption and complete control of natural resources.

In any case, the use of biological weapons to reduce the population is too dangerous. We must not forget that substances are capable of mutating and, quite possibly, the Masons themselves will not be able to protect themselves from their own “seeds of evil”, since they will not have a vaccine.

Thus, it is the nuclear Third World War that is the most considered by experts option for the development of further events on the part of the Freemasons with their desire to restore world order with total control.

World War III: Clairvoyant Predictions

In the conditions of the world, frozen on the threshold of something global and frightening, people listen to everything that gives even the slightest bit believable picture of the future. It seems that the war that will engulf the countries is inevitable. Look only at the confrontation between different civilizations, radical ideologies and the threat of terrorism.

Do not forget about natural disasters and catastrophes that happened through the fault of mankind itself. They also provoked a struggle for the necessary resources - energy sources and clean water.

Both today and many years ago, sages, scientists and amateurs tried to decipher the ancient records, predictions and prophecies of famous psychics and sorcerers in order to find answers to many questions of interest to the people. The most important question to which one wants to find a soothing answer is whether there will be a Third World War.

Hermit Kasyan predicted a tectonic catastrophe, after which people would pour into the surviving territories in hungry crowds, causing even greater destruction, carrying the final death for the peoples.

According to Alois Ihlmeier at the very beginning of the Third World War, bacteriological and chemical weapons will be used, atomic rockets will be launched. The East will declare war on Europe. Diseases, as if from a cornucopia, will begin to fall on people, producing terrible, unprecedented epidemics. Due to the movement of tectonic plates, many territories will become uninhabitable and this will cause the attack of Muslims and Asians. The seer also says that Syria will become the key either to peace or to the start of a world war.

Forest seer Mulchiazl, in turn, noted that the main sign of the coming war would be "construction fever" - like bees in a hive, peoples would erect huge honeycombs, filling the planet. It is quite possible that the prophet had in mind the preoccupation of mankind with the material side of life more than the spiritual.

The Great in his quatrains wrote that the war would begin in the 21st century and last for 27 years. This bloody and destructive war will come from the East.

The blind woman said that the global war would start from Syria, spread to Europe and move on. A massive battle is brewing between the Christian and Muslim worlds.

Grigory Rasputin spoke of three snakes that would bring great destruction. There have already been two world wars, which means that humanity is waiting for new tests.

The situation is truly threatening. But, despite the fact that the whole world is now asking the question: when will the war, we must not forget that it, quite possibly, has already begun. And the war began in our souls. Now material goods have been put in the first place, and not the laughter of a child or the smile of a mother.

Sincerely love, sympathize, help has long been out of date. But if we begin to think more often about our own souls and the common good, perhaps we will be able to avoid a bloody slaughter.

Fear of the Third World War seized humanity shortly after the defeat of Nazi Germany and the signing of peace agreements. The short-lived euphoria crashed against the prospect of a full-scale conflict between the USSR and the USA. Everyone was waiting for a nuclear war to break out. In America, there was even a fashion to build bomb shelters in the backyard of the house. There was a brief period of calm with the collapse of the Soviet Union, but in recent years the horror of a global catastrophe has once again loomed on the horizon.

Meanwhile, the prophecies about the Third World have their roots in the mists of time. One of the earliest is the prediction of Nostradamus. According to him, the "Great Third" will begin after the cataclysm that came from the close passage of a comet or a large asteroid to the Earth. The appearance of a heavenly body will be a sign, akin to the biblical one. Then the war will begin - most of Europe will be captured by the alliance of Chinese-eastern armies. In the predictions of the prophet, however, rather vague and confused, it is said that the aggressor will attack from the East. Interestingly, during the Cold War, Western publicists replaced the words "East" and "Reds" with "Russia" and "Russians."

At the time when Nostradamus lived, the word East meant countries in Asia Minor, Mesopotamia, India and China. Well, Russia, in the understanding of the best minds of Europe, was a country of the North, sometimes called Aquilon. The prophecy does not portend a strike from the North. In one of the texts dating back to 1559, Nostradamus twice reports that Europe will be captured by the “Eastern King”.

Grigory Rasputin, a great friend of the Romanov royal family, repeatedly mentioned the Third World War: “Three hungry snakes will crawl along the roads of Europe, leaving ashes and smoke behind them, they have one house - and this is a sword, and they have one law - violence, but, dragging humanity through dust and blood, they themselves will perish by the sword.”

This replicated quote, however, is symbolic only by the number of hungry snakes. There is another statement by Rasputin, in which, with due desire, one can see indications of geographical areas and opposing sides: “The world expects three“ lightning ”that one after another will burn the earth between sacred rivers, a palm garden and lilies. A prince will come from the west who will enslave man with wealth; another prince will come from the east who will enslave man with poverty.”
In most interpretations, it is assumed that “the land between the sacred rivers” is Iraq, the “palm garden” is Egypt, and the lilies symbolize France, as they were on the medieval coat of arms of France: and perhaps Rasputin pointed to this.

Russian writer Vladimir Solovyov (1853-1900) predicted a powerful blow from the Far East that would crush the third Rome, that is, Russia. Remarkably, this author has both prose and poetry on the theme of a global conflict that will reshape the world. In contrast to the vague prophecies of Nostradamus and Rasputin, Solovyov paints a very clear picture of the Sino-Asian invasion, when the numerically predominant enemy will knock out the Russian regiments first from Siberia with an unexpected blow, then cross the Ural Range and invade the European part of the country. The work "Three conversations about the Antichrist" speaks of these events as the destruction of the existing world order.

From Malay waters to Altai
Chiefs from the Eastern Isles
At the walls of drooping China
Gathered the darkness of their regiments,
Like locusts are innumerable,
And insatiable like her
Protected by an unearthly power
Tribes go north
Oh, Russia, forget the past glory!
The two-headed eagle is crushed,
And yellow children for fun
Given shreds of your banners!
And the third Rome lies in the dust,
And there won't be a fourth...

There are also quite modern prophets who accurately indicate the time and politicians who will unleash the Third World War. According to the Portuguese mystic and prophet Horacio Villegas, Donald Trump will start the global military conflict. The United States, North Korea, China and Russia will converge in a nuclear conflict.

True, the soothsayer called 2017 the year the war began, when tensions in the world were especially high, the United States was furiously bombing Syria, and North Korea was actively demonstrating its nuclear potential.

The fact that the cataclysm did not erupt in the specified year did not embarrass the supporters of Villegas, because the alignment of world forces has not changed, which means that the seer could simply “miss” the date.

It is worth noting that Horacio Villegas still became famous for one prediction that came true. Back in 2015, he predicted that Donald Trump would win the election, while most of the Western media were on the side of Hillary Clinton and talked about her victory as a matter almost settled. It is worth noting that Villegas, in his prophecies, pays special attention to Trump and calls him “the king of the Illuminati.”

Not only mystics speak out on the topic of the Third World War. Political scientists, historians, sociologists offer different scenarios, most agree that in the foreseeable future there will be no global conflict, despite international tensions.

According to the calculations of the macro sociologist and leading researcher at Yale University, Immanuel Wallerstein, the author of the theory of the world-system approach, if current trends continue, World War III could break out between 2025 and 2050. Wallerstein's predictions are based on the classical understanding of the capitalist system, which is expansive and cyclical in nature. After the destruction of the Soviet Union, capitalism became a truly global system, which now has nowhere to expand. You cannot capture new markets, you can only arrange a redistribution of old ones. Against this background, each subsequent crisis becomes deeper, and subsequent growth is not able to pull the economy back to its previous level.

It is becoming more and more difficult to find a source of sustainable profits, and the state has to respond to this by taking on the costs of the capitalists by increasing debts. According to Wallerstein, at the low point of one of these crises, an armed conflict can occur, which will lead to a domino effect, drawing more and more states into hostilities. Unlike visionaries and mystics, modern analysts describe only the principles of operation of economic and political systems, without naming possible participants in conflicts and ways to conduct them.

Socio-political tension is constantly growing in the world. And some experts predict that everything can result in a global conflict. How realistic is it in the short term?

The risk remains

It is unlikely that today someone is pursuing the goal of unleashing a world war. Previously, if a large-scale conflict was brewing, the instigator always expected to end it as quickly as possible and with minimal losses. However, as history shows, almost all "blitzkriegs" resulted in a protracted confrontation involving a huge amount of human and material resources. Such wars hurt both the loser and the winner.

Nevertheless, wars have always been and, unfortunately, will arise, because someone wants to have more resources, and someone defends their borders, including from mass illegal migration, fights terrorism or demands the restoration of their rights in accordance with with previous agreements.

In the event that countries still decide to get involved in a global war, then, according to many experts, they will certainly be divided into different camps, which will be approximately equal in strength. The cumulative military, primarily nuclear, potential of the powers that hypothetically take part in the collision is capable of destroying all life on the planet dozens of times. How likely is it that the coalitions will start this suicidal war? Analysts say that it is not great, but the danger remains.

Political poles

The modern world order is far from what it was after the Second World War. However, formally it continues to exist on the basis of the Yalta and Bretton Woods agreements of the states of the anti-Hitler coalition. The only thing that has changed is the balance of power that was formed during the Cold War. The two poles of world geopolitics today, like half a century ago, are determined by Russia and the United States.

Russia crossed the Rubicon, and this did not pass without a trace and painlessly for her: she temporarily lost her superpower status and lost her traditional allies. However, our country has managed to preserve its integrity, maintain its influence in the post-Soviet space, revive the military-industrial complex and acquire new strategic partners.

The financial and political elite of the United States, as in the good old days, under democratic slogans, continues to carry out military expansion far from its borders, at the same time successfully imposing on the leading countries an “anti-crisis” and “anti-terrorist” policy that is beneficial for itself.

In recent years, China has been persistently wedged into the confrontation between Russia and the United States. The Eastern dragon, while maintaining good relations with Russia, nevertheless does not take sides. Possessing the largest army and carrying out rearmament on an unprecedented scale, he has every reason to do so.

A united Europe also remains an influential player on the world stage. Despite dependence on the North Atlantic Alliance, certain forces in the Old World are in favor of an independent political course. Not far off is the reconstruction of the armed forces of the European Union, which will be carried out by Germany and France. In the face of energy shortages, Europe will act decisively, analysts say.

It is impossible not to pay attention to the growing threat posed by radical Islam in the Middle East. This is not only the extremist nature of the actions of Islamic groups in the region, which is growing every year, but also the expansion of the geography and tools of terrorism.

Unions

Recently, we have been increasingly observing the consolidation of various allied associations. This is evidenced, on the one hand, by the summits of Donald Trump and the leaders of Israel, South Korea, Japan, Britain and other leading European countries, and, on the other hand, by the meetings of heads of state within the framework of the activities of the BRICS bloc, which involves new international partners. During the talks, not only trade, economic and political issues are discussed, but also all sorts of aspects of military cooperation.

The well-known military analyst Joachim Hagopian emphasized back in 2015 that the “recruitment of friends” by America and Russia is not accidental. China and India, in his opinion, will be drawn into the orbit of Russia, and the European Union will inevitably follow the United States. This is supported by the intensified exercises of NATO countries in Eastern Europe and a military parade with the participation of Indian and Chinese units on Red Square.

Russian presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev says that it would be beneficial and even fundamentally important for our country to create a coalition of any countries that do not support militant rhetoric directed against the Russian state. Then, according to him, the United States will be forced to moderate its ardor.

At the same time, it will be of great importance what position Turkey will take, which is almost a key figure capable of acting as a catalyst for relations between Europe and the Middle East, and, more broadly, between the West and the countries of the Asian region. What we are seeing now is a cunning game of Istanbul on the differences between the US and Russia.

Resources

Foreign and domestic analysts tend to conclude that a global war could be provoked by the global financial crisis. The most serious problem of the leading countries of the world lies in the close interweaving of their economies: the collapse of one of them will entail serious consequences for others.

The war that may follow a devastating crisis will be fought not so much for territory as for resources. For example, analysts Alexander Sobyanin and Marat Shibutov build the following hierarchy of resources that the beneficiary will receive: people, uranium, gas, oil, coal, mining raw materials, drinking water, agricultural land.

It is curious that, from the point of view of some experts, the status of a universally recognized world leader does not yet guarantee the United States victory in such a war. In the past, NATO Commander-in-Chief Richard Schiffer, in his book 2017: War with Russia, predicted a defeat for the United States, the cause of which would be the financial collapse and collapse of the American army.

Who is first?

Today, the trigger that could set off the mechanism, if not of a world war, then of a global clash, could be the crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Joachim Hagopian, however, predicts that it is fraught with the use of nuclear charges and at first Russia and the United States will not get involved in it.

Glazyev does not see serious grounds for a global war, but notes that its risk will persist until the United States gives up its claims to world domination. The most dangerous period, according to Glazyev, is the beginning of the 2020s, when the West will emerge from the depression, and developed countries, including China and the United States, will begin the next round of rearmament. At the peak of a new technological leap, the threat of global conflict will be hidden.

It is characteristic that the famous Bulgarian clairvoyant Vanga did not dare to predict the date of the start of the Third World War, indicating only that religious strife around the world would most likely become its cause.

"Hybrid Wars"

Not everyone believes in the reality of World War III. Why go for mass casualties and destruction, if there is a long-tried and more effective means - "hybrid war". The "White Paper", intended for the commanders of the special forces of the American army, in the section "Win in a complex world" contains all the exhaustive information on this subject.

It says that any military operations against the authorities primarily imply implicit and covert actions. Their essence is the attack of rebel forces or terrorist organizations (which are supplied from abroad with money and weapons) on government structures. Sooner or later, the existing regime loses control over the situation and leaves its country at the mercy of the sponsors of the coup.

Capital can do anything

Nowadays, not only conspiracy theorists are sure that both world wars were largely provoked by the Anglo-American financial corporations, which extracted fabulous profits from militarization. And their ultimate goal is the establishment of the so-called "American peace".

“Today we are on the verge of a grandiose reformatting of the world order, the instrument of which will again be war,” says writer Alexei Kungurov. It will be a financial war of world capitalism directed mainly against the developing countries.

The task of such a war is to give the periphery no chance for any kind of independence. In underdeveloped or dependent countries, a system of external currency management is established, which forces them to exchange their output, resources and other material values ​​for dollars. The more transactions, the more the American machine will print currencies.

But the main goal of world capital is the "Heartland": the territory of the Eurasian continent, most of which is controlled by Russia. Whoever owns the "Heartland" with its colossal resource base will own the world - so said the English geopolitician Halford Mackinder.

George Friedman regularly mentions this without a hint of irony and with cold certainty: in the field of geopolitics and forecasting, everything must be able to set a clear time frame. Months before the release of his book The Next 100 Years: Forecasting the 21st Century in December 2009, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, setting off a crisis that shook the foundations of the global financial system.

That is, a priori, this was a completely inappropriate moment to work in defense of the idea that the United States will maintain its dominant position in the 21st century thanks to economic and military power. “Some thought my forecast was stillborn as the American economy collapsed and could not recover,” Friedman recalls.

Be that as it may, months after publication, the American economy was still holding on, and the book by the founder of Stratfor (a private American intelligence agency) was in fifth place on The New York Times bestseller list.

Center of gravity of the world system

The United States experienced a severe financial crisis, which turned into a recession, but did not at all rise to the same level as the Great Depression of the 1930s. In addition, according to the political scientist, this recession was by no means the worst since the end of World War II. In any case, she showed again that America is the center of gravity of the world system: if she is in crisis, the whole world is at risk.

In addition, the crisis raged much more outside the United States than in their territory. From all this, Friedman draws the following conclusion: the world can recover only after America gets back on its feet. He notes other variables as well: the recent disastrous intervention in Iraq has had less of an impact than might have been imagined.

The U.S. sent less than 200,000 men there and lost less than 5,000, representing 6% to 8% of casualties in Vietnam and just 1% of casualties in World War II.

Unprecedented events

Another argument in his favor is the preservation of the structural geopolitical feature of the United States: they still control all the seas. This control is the basis not only of America's security, but also of its ability to influence the international system.

In addition to secondary symptoms of the financial crisis, George Friedman emphasizes its impact on the perception of geopolitics: he says, he demonstrates that almost all events have already had precedents, and that there are practically no opportunities for renegotiation.

Thus, geopolitics, from his point of view, is to remember these types of behavior and understand why they are repeated. His predictions in The Next 100 Years: Forecasting the 21st Century turned out to be bold enough. They rest against the horizon clearly defined by the author: one century. This horizon allows him to avoid responsibility for his prophecies.

Two blocs, two coalitions

The political scientist says that the emerging powers, led by Russia and China, are in for a quick decline. In addition, by 2050 he predicts a third world war of two blocks. The first will be formed by the US, Poland (it will become the leader of Central Europe), the UK, India and China. The second will take the form of an alliance between Turkey and Japan.

The beginning of the conflict will be put by a coordinated attack by the Turks and the Japanese. They will seek not the occupation or destruction of the US, but an agreement that would guarantee them spheres of influence: the Pacific Northwest for Japan and the Middle East for Turkey.

In the longer term (sometime around 2080), George Friedman envisions a conflict between the US and Mexico. While the US is now closing borders to Mexican migrants, that dynamic could change in 20 years for demographic reasons: in an effort to offset an aging workforce, the US could introduce easier work visas and even financial incentives for anyone willing to work for them (primarily queue for Mexicans, with whom they have a long common border).

Americanocentrism

By 2080, this country will become a powerful economic power with a large diaspora in the United States. It could become a threat to America's national interests. What will entail a confrontation between the two countries.

At the time of its release, the book received a number of positive reviews. The Washington Post considered the forecast that the United States would remain a dominant superpower in the 21st century justified, although the rest of the argument seemed more dubious to the newspaper. The New York Times, in turn, also agreed that the United States will remain a power whose strength will only grow.

The San Francisco Chronicle took a much harder line and criticized the book's "Americanocentrism", comparing its theories to the logic of "a frightened and insomniac who can't get off Age of Empires because he desperately wants to win before he gets up." Sun". In France, the book was translated in 2011 by the small publisher Zdl editions.

European nationalism

George Friedman believes that his approach is based on common sense:

Context

Geopolitics on 64 squares

Recession over?

US economy: recession inevitable

Global Democratic Recession

World Bank: Bad Outlook for Russia

In other words, you need to keep a close eye on what could be the next big change. He recalls that European powers dominated the world in 1900 but lay in ruins in 1920 after World War I. “Everyone thought that Germany was finished, but 20 years later she occupied France and became the first continental power,” he said. “After the fall of the Berlin Wall, geopolitics ended, there should have been no more war.” But 9/11 happened.

“What seems obvious to us in 20 years?” he continues. — In my book, I write about the inevitability of the rise of nationalism in Europe. Then it was 2009, and this seemed simply unthinkable, since the European Union is based on the abolition of borders, the idea of ​​\u200b\u200bopposing nationalism. Today, I see nothing that could stop the decline of the European Union.”

Decline of Russia and China

As for short-term forecasts (for the 2010s), George Friedman is only unhappy with the fact that he considered that the decline of Russia and China will begin later. The challenge facing China is how to transfer wealth from coastal regions inland. And this seems to be a difficult task.

China's once record-breaking growth is slowing to normal levels, like Japan's in the past. But there are still a billion poor people in the country. According to the political scientist, China is hindered by its geography: it resembles an island, which is surrounded not by water, but by wild lands. They isolate it from the rest of the world and limit its hegemony to Southeast Asia. Russia lives mainly due to the export of hydrocarbons. Since their prices have fallen and continue to fall, the Russian state is only waiting for a recession.

Be that as it may, Friedman admits to himself a serious mistake: he failed to predict the aggravation of the Middle East conflicts. At the same time, he still does not see a particular threat from Islam, both for the West and for the Arab countries: “The problem with Islam is that it is divided into religious and ethnic groups. The goal of the "Islamic State" (a terrorist organization banned in Russia - ed. note) is to restore the caliphate. To do this, it is necessary to achieve unity in the territory from Morocco to the Philippines, which will not happen during this century.

ardent conviction

The most daring and detailed forecast concerns the third world war. On this issue, Friedman passionately defends his point of view: “All ages have had their systemic wars. They happen because some powers rise and others decline. During World War II, three powers came to the fore: Germany, the United States and Japan. France and the British Empire were losing ground. It will be strange if there are no systemic changes in the 21st.”

It is objected to him that a new world conflict is practically unthinkable because of modern weapons. He replies: "Wars are always impossible... Until the day they start." “I called Japan and Turkey emerging powers. Japan will again become a regional power whose air and sea forces will need to be strengthened. This will mean a clash with an American power that seeks dominance in the oceans."

Turkey is another illustrative case. The last 100 years have become an anomaly for the country, given the past of the Byzantine and Ottoman empires. “By all logic, this strong country should establish its hegemony in an unstable region,” which will cease to be such under the dominance of Turkey.

Analyzing the twentieth century, the political scientist notes how easy it was to guess that Germany and Italy, which united in the 1930s, as well as Japan, which followed the path of industrialization, would want to change the international system. The same applies to the dominance of the USA and the USSR in the second half of the century.

The materials of InoSMI contain only assessments of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the editors of InoSMI.