Formulation of the problem

The historian can study two kinds of historical possibilities. The first type is a possibility as an assumption about the events of the historical past unknown to us. Reality here does not take into account our conjectures. On the contrary, our conjectures and alternative models for filling in the "blank spots" of history should be consistent with reality. The second type of possibility implies a situation when a reality that has not yet materialized is conceived as the realization of one of the alternatives (from the Latin alter - one or the other of two - the possibility or necessity of something different in relation to the given one), and the possibility is conceived as properties of the existing historical situation, leading to a change in this situation.

Our study is devoted to the second type of possibilities, its study in historical science and its properties as a phenomenon of historical consciousness and as a phenomenon of the historical past. The choice of topic is due to the formulation of the following initial problems: 1) What is the place and role of the idea of ​​alternativeness historical development in domestic historical science? 2) Is the alternative development in the historical past only a useful applied analytical train of thought and is relevant only to intellectual historical reflection, or does it also have a self-suppressing theoretical meaning and a special concrete historical content? Such a statement of problems causes the presence of two interrelated and complementary components of the work - historiographic and methodological.

The alternativeness of historical development is one of the most functional phenomena of historical consciousness. Awareness or denial of the possibility of a different course of events is often the main reason for turning to the past. When does the realization of alternative historical development arise? Probably, when historians begin to explain the course of events not by the will of the gods, but by the will of man. For example, the already famous book by Niccolò Machiavelli “The Sovereign” (“Prince”) is full of arguments in the subjunctive mood. However, the search for the original historiographic origins of the theme of alternativeness is not included in our tasks. The work is devoted only to the period when the alternativeness of historical development is recognized as a special methodological problem that requires special study.

There are two fundamental opposite approaches in the study of the alternativeness of the past. In the first case, the historian does not go beyond the boundaries of the past, he considers the possibilities actually contained in the past. Moreover, answering the question “could it have been otherwise?”, different historians can give radically opposite answers in relation to the same historical situation. There is a different approach to understanding the alternativeness of historical development, associated with going beyond the boundaries of the past history and counterfactual modeling of events. In this case, the historian may be guided by opposing goals. The first purpose of addressing a failed history is to prove that only what was could be. The second goal is to prove that everything could have been different, and a variant opposite to the actual past could have been realized.

What are the advantages and disadvantages of the above approaches? How can they be applied in the practice of historical research? What problems that cannot be solved with other approaches can be productively solved with the help of a study of alternative historical development? What theoretical directions exist in understanding the multivariance of history in Russian historiography? How have these trends developed? What are the relationships and contradictions between them? What gaps exist in understanding the problem of alternativeness and how can they be filled? These are the main questions to which the dissertation is devoted.

Object and subject of research

The object of the historiographical part of the study is the work of domestic scientists devoted to the problem of alternative historical development. The subject of research here is the historiographic, theoretical, methodological and discursive characteristics of the development of the idea of ​​alternativeness in Russian historical science.

The object of the methodological part of the study is the alternativeness of historical development as a phenomenon of historical consciousness and as a phenomenon of the historical past. The subject of research in this case - metaphysical, logical, socio-psychological foundations and empirical methods for studying the alternativeness of historical development.

Goals and objectives of the study

The study has two main objectives.

The first goal: to trace the development of the study of the problem of alternativeness in Russian historical science and to characterize the experience gained in these studies. Within the framework of this goal, the following tasks are set: 1. To identify the stages of development and theoretical directions in the study of the problem of alternativeness. 2. Summarize and evaluate the contribution of each stage to the study of the problem. 3. Carry out a critical analysis of theoretical directions, using the methods of discursive analysis and system analysis. 4. Identify insufficiently studied aspects of alternative historical development.

The second goal: to conduct a methodological analysis of insufficiently studied aspects in the study of alternative historical development and try to fill in the gaps in this area. Within the framework of the second goal, the following tasks are set: 1. To establish the philosophical and metaphysical foundations of the phenomenon of alternative historical development. 2. To systematize the categorical-terminological and methodological apparatus used in the study of alternativeness. 3. Develop new methods for studying alternative historical situations.

Methodological grounds

Based on the previous experience of studying the problem of alternative historical development, an attempt will be made to develop new approach to understanding this problem. On this path, preference is given not to declaring the final answers to questions, but to setting criteria for the correct formulation of questions and answers. The complexity and multidimensionality of the problems required a comprehensive interdisciplinary consideration, but comprehensiveness should not destroy integrity and give rise to eclecticism. Therefore, the methodological principle of searching for the synthesis of various concepts used in comprehending the alternativeness of historical development will be dominant.

The reference in the work to the ideas of metaphysics in the works of classical philosophers is justified by the fact that the category of free will has a fundamental role for the concept of alternative historical development. The problem of free will belongs to those fundamental problems that cannot be not only solved but also posed outside of metaphysics. Since history, unlike philosophy, does not study meanings in general, but meanings “documented in time,” special attention will be paid to the conjugation of metaphysical foundations with empirical methods.

Research methods

The problem of alternative historical development was studied from the point of view of its socio-psychological origins, the continuity of author's schools, the formation and transformation of new approaches, so the main principle of the study will be historicism.

Since the development of a certain topic and idea is being studied, it was considered necessary to use the method of analyzing discursive practices (M. Foucault).

When studying an alternative situation, the historian deals primarily with information about the system of events. Therefore, methods of system analysis will be applied ( F. I. Peregudov, F. P. Tarasenko, V. N. Kostyuk).

One of the areas of research of historical alternatives is the use of quantitative methods, therefore, in the analysis of these areas, some principles of the methods of higher mathematics will be used. The works of A. N. Kolmogorov, S. A. Aivazyan, N. N. Moiseev are used as a basis for competent specialists.

Scientific significance of the topic

A non-alternative understanding of development at the conceptual level provides the researcher with a convenient support for selecting facts that confirm his theory and ignoring facts that disagree with it. Sometimes this can lead to the disappearance of motives for the search for new facts and new explanations for known facts. There are historical phenomena that, with an uncontested vision of history, do not even fall into the field of view of the historian.

Thus, according to P. Yu. Uvarov, in the French history of the 15th century, along with the winning model of a centralized monarchy and state-of-the-nation, there was a "Burgundian alternative", actually represented by the state of the Dukes of Burgundy. “This trend was not realized - the accidental death of Charles the Bold put an end to this "experiment", and Burgundy fell apart. This result seemed so convincing to supporters of the "linear model" of historical evolution that the history of the lands of the Duke of Burgundy acquired for them the status of a typical "misunderstanding", an instructive zigzag of history, corrected by the laws of historical necessity. From the French "General Histories" the history of the Netherlands in the 15th century. completely disappeared. This could be explained by the peculiarities of French historiography as an element of national identity, ”but our historians do not have a word about political history Burgundian state “There was no such state, because it was “wrong” and had no future.” Thus, insufficient knowledge of the problem of alternative historical development may impede the full development of historical science.

Common phrases that history does not have (does not know, does not tolerate, does not allow, does not love, it does not have) the subjunctive mood, or - historical science excludes (it is not applicable, not permissible in it) the subjunctive mood, literally flooded journalism, and partly the arguments of professional historians. This phenomenon could become an interesting object of study for memetics - a science that describes in terms of genetics the reproduction, distribution, selection, mutation and death of memes - elementary units, culture quanta. Such informational quanta - memes, can also be formulated ideas, literary clichés and phrases used by the authors of printed works. The life of a meme can be imagined by analogy with the trajectory of the spread of a virus, which can only exist in the cell of an infected carrier. The carriers of the meme "history has no subjunctive mood" in our case are the arguments of historians devoted to historical experience, "the lessons of history", the choice made by the subjects of historical activity in critical situations, unexpected changes in the course of events under the influence of accidents.

Characteristically, following the statement about the inadmissibility of the subjunctive mood in history or before them, arguments very often sound in the subjunctive mood. This, on the one hand, shows the need for this very “subjunctive mood” in the study of the historical past, and on the other hand, indicates the absence, or at least the underdevelopment, of methodological reflection on this problem. For a significant part of Russian historians, the entire methodology on this issue most often comes down to another meme, namely: “to study what could have been should be in order to understand why everything happened this way and not otherwise.” It seems that the problem of alternative historical development, due to its importance and complexity, should not be reduced to the functioning of memes.

The degree of knowledge of the problem

There are still no generalizing historiographical works on the study of the problem of alternativeness in Russian historical science. Some authors give very brief reviews of several papers. Meanwhile, the critical mass of author's publications on the topic of alternativeness has reached such a limit that a special study in this area is required.

Russian historical science has accumulated a fairly extensive and original experience in studying the problem of alternativeness, which needs to be generalized, creatively comprehended and developed. Here, first of all, it is necessary to consider the contribution of methodologists M. Ya. Gefter, A. Ya. Gurevich, I. D. Kovalchenko, M. A. Barga, E. M. Zhukova, B. G. Mogilnitsky, P. V. Volobueva, Yu. M. Lotman. From latest works distinguished studies of S. A. Ekshtuta and L. I. Borodkin. The works of N. Ya. Eidelman, A. D. Sukhov, V. B. Kobrin, E.A. Nikiforova, E. G. Plimak, I. K. Pantina, I. M. Klyamkina, G. G. Vodolazova, Ya. G. Shemyakina, V. V. Ivanov, I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada A. S. Akhiezer, A.V. Korotaeva, M. S. Kagana, V. B Lukov and V. M. Sergeev, Yu. P. Bokareva, S. F. Grebenichenko, S. B. Pereslegin and many others.

Also attracted are the works of foreign authors who addressed the problem of alternativeness in history: M. Blok, D. Milo, R.Koselleck, L. Mises, A. J. Toynbee, R. Vogel, E. Anxel, A. Demanda, K. Maxi, N. Fergusson and others.

Despite a solid history of development, a new direction of scientific analysis has not yet been fully formed, not only in domestic science, but also abroad. There is not only a verified methodology, but even a generally recognized name. The concepts of “alternative development”, “multi-variant history”, “alternative studies”, “retro-alternative studies”, “retro-prognosis”, “virtual history”, “failed history”, “counterfactual modeling” are used. There is no agreement between all these directions. Such concepts as “historical possibility”, “historical probability”, “historical accident”, “freedom of choice” are widely used, but theoretically insufficiently comprehended and methodically not mastered. The dissertation work is an attempt to overcome these shortcomings.

The novelty of the dissertation research

The novelty in the historiographic part of the work, in addition to the first generalized study of the problem, was contained in the application of the method of analyzing discursive practices to the study of the role and place of the ideas of K. Marx and F. Engels in research on the problem of alternative historical development in Soviet historical science. Discursive analysis is also used in characterizing the understanding of alternativeness in history by M. Ya. Gefter and in criticizing the use of the concepts of synergetics in historical knowledge.

The novelty was also contained in the development of a correct definition of historical chance, in some new principles for the classification of historical possibilities, in highlighting such an aspect of the problem as the ratio of the choice of the historian and the choice of the subject of historical activity, in posing the problem of the incorrect use of mathematical methods in the study of science from the point of view of mathematics and system analysis. historical alternatives and in the criticism carried out from these positions.

In search of metaphysical philosophical foundations theoretical study alternativeness in history, areas of intersection or complementarity were established, as well as methods of mutual verification or falsification for antinomianism (Kant), dialectics (Hegel), intuitionism (A. Bergson, N.O. Lossky, S.A. Levitsky), existentialism (S. Kierkegaard, M. Heidegger, J.-P. Sart), positivism (P. S. Laplace) and neo-positivism (L. Wittgenstein, K. Hempel). Such a synthesis in relation to the problem of alternativeness in history is also a novelty.

When using probabilistic logic for the theoretical study of the alternativeness of historical development, the complementarity and mutual verifiability of the concepts of probability of Leibniz, A. A. Markov, R. Mises, A. N. Kolmogorov, R. Carnap, J. Keynes, G. Reichenbach, L. Zadeh in the study of historical probability. Based on the concepts of probabilistic logic, an attempt will be made to develop a new method for empirical analysis of the probabilistic picture of the historical situation.

Relevance of the research topic

The scientific significance of the problem of alternative historical development is closely related to topical issues modern socio-economic and political practice. Failure to understand the multivariance of historical development in the past leads to a misunderstanding of the multivariance of the future in the context of the constant variability of the current situation, which can lead to irreversible errors. Suffice it to recall the declaration that there was no alternative to shock therapy in Russia in the early 1990s. Political levers were thrown to hush up other opinions. Everyone knows the catastrophic result for Russia. It was the logic of no alternative that gave rise to the theory of Russia's permanent “lag” and “catching up” with the West, which does not recognize that this is not a lag, but other forms of development.

Of course, the non-recognition of alternative development is characteristic not only of the historical consciousness of Russians. For example, guided by the concept of no alternatives, advisers to the US presidents defeated the economies of Africa and Latin America for their own good, for the sake of progressive development, but development along one path in which there can be no alternatives.

In search of historical sources and historical lessons for the current situation, historical consciousness tends to turn to analogies with the past in the subjunctive mood. So in 1990-1991 the image of Stolypin became very popular. The former "reactionary" and "hangman" turned into a hero. Then, in August 1991, the February Revolution moved into the spotlight. Then they started talking about the danger of a "new October".

MN Pokrovsky's thesis that "history is politics overturned into the past" retains its relevance despite all the political and historiographic upheavals. Historical arguments in the subjunctive mood have become another weapon in the “war for the past”. A failed but possible story has become one of the “battlefields” in the information wars of modern propaganda. In this regard, the study of the historiographical and methodological aspects of alternativeness in history, in addition to scientific, can also have social and practical significance, namely: to contribute to the accumulation of a theoretical base for planning and conducting “attacks” and “counterattacks” in information wars, to stay away from which the historian is unlikely to succeed fully.

What was perestroika-era glasnost if not a large-scale information war aimed at discrediting the Soviet regime? And the theme of alternative history (for example, “if the communists did not do what they did in the past, then we would live better now”) was one of the main ones in this war.

In a generalized form, the processes taking place with humanity at the turn of the 20th-21st centuries are usually called the term “globalization”. Globalization involves many development alternatives and opposing tendencies. One of the main trends modern world the decentralization of political power is recognized, due to the avalanche-like course of the scientific and technological revolution, its global nature and the universality of its impact on all aspects of society, the massive development of means of communication, the transnational nature of economic centers that reduce the need for traditional centers of political power. At the same time, ethnic and nationalist groups are recognized as the most effective and efficient subjects of decentralization of state power at the current, first, stage of globalization. This is due to the fact that the established state borders, as a rule, do not correspond to real ethnic, linguistic and territorial units. Encouraging influence on such groupings can already in the near future lead to the formation of new small state formations and open up the possibility of their participation in various economic unions.

With regard to the topic of alternativeness, such trends were reflected primarily in PR campaigns aimed at supporting centrifugal and separatist movements in the territory former USSR. In state and ethnic entities that have ever enjoyed independence or belonged to another state, there are very common arguments that life in these regions would be better if they had not been annexed to the USSR or Russia sometime. Or that life in countries that did not become part of the USSR would be worse if they were included in the USSR (for example, Finland, which claims to return Karelia). Such reasoning is especially typical for the Baltic states, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Tatarstan, etc. To make sure of this without raising all the press, it is enough to make a corresponding request on the Internet, for example: subjunctive&&history&&country name.

For Russia, one can see three development options regarding the processes of globalization. The first is the refusal to participate in globalization, that is, a kind of autarky, which means the destruction of Russia as a power. This option has little chance, and if implemented, it will be reversible. The second option is self-elimination from the main roles in globalization and turning into its passive object. That is, Russia is becoming a raw material appendage, "the tenth contractor of third corporations." This option is very beneficial for many small officials and market operators in Russia, and, of course, for the international economic elite. And the third, the only worthy option is active globalization, the creation of some kind of Russian strategy.

Looking at these perspectives from the point of view of using the problem of the alternative historical past in political propaganda, we can assume that the forces striving for the implementation of the second option will try to belittle the historical role of Russia, disavow its potential for mobilization in critical historical situations and overestimate this potential for the West. , to construct among the Russians disbelief in the revival. When choosing the third option, it becomes necessary to respond to such attacks, and there are already examples of such confrontation. Thus, in the article “The Caribbean Crisis: Counterfactual Modeling of a Possible Outcome”, I. A. Kopylov, Head of the Group of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and S. A. Modestov, Advisor to the Personnel Department of the President of the Russian Federation, Doctor of Political Sciences, criticize the arguments of American historians that the behavior of the administration Khrushchev in the early 60s, from the point of view of the military-strategic potential, was a bluff and an unjustified adventure, and the United States, in the event of tougher retaliatory actions, could defeat the USSR. The authors of the article note that “the increased interest in unrealized historical opportunities is associated among American colleagues with the missed opportunities of the strong, who overestimated the potential of the weak. All the counterfactual versions of the past they consider have in mind the same upsetting circumstance: with the enemy it was possible to resolve the issue earlier, easier and cheaper.

The main thing that a historian who finds himself in a situation of information warfare should not forget is that the imposition of political interests on historical science is fraught with a distortion of the past and undermining confidence in historians as servants of scientific truth. This should be taken into account in the current conditions of another alternative situation in the development of society.

Timeline of the study

The chronological framework of the study can be determined on two grounds: historiographical and concrete historical.

The first chapter is devoted to Russian historiography since the mid-1960s. until 2001. In the second chapter, works are considered, starting from the end XIX century..

The specific historical framework is determined by the themes and plots that were touched upon by domestic and foreign authors in connection with the theme of alternative history. This framework covers fragments of human history from primitive to modern times. For the same reasons, the territorial-spatial historical framework is not limited, although the greatest attention is paid to Russian and European history.

Thesis structure

The structure of the dissertation is subordinated to the goals and objectives of the study. The work consists of an introduction, 2 chapters, a conclusion, a list of sources and references. The first chapter is historiographical with methodological comments. It consists of 8 sections, the information in which is systematized by chronology and authorship of the works. The second chapter is methodological with historiographical comments. It consists of 5 main sections. The information in the second chapter is systematized according to the problematic principle.

The sources of historiographic research are the works of domestic authors who studied the theoretical or specific historical aspects of the problem of alternative historical development, including materials round tables dedicated to this topic. When analyzing the methodological aspects of the problem of alternativeness, the works of foreign historians on this topic were used, as well as the philosophical works of representatives of German classical philosophy, positivism, Marxism, existentialism, intuitionism, neopositivism, and postmodernism. Works of domestic and foreign mathematicians were used as auxiliary material in applying the concepts and methods of higher mathematics.

The results of the dissertation research can be used for further scientific developments on this and related topics.

The results of the dissertation research can contribute to the development of legislation on joint-stock companies, as well as the resolution of problems that arise in its application.

The provisions developed in the dissertation can be applied in the process of teaching the course " Civil law”, a special course “Challenging the decisions of the general meeting of shareholders”, in higher legal educational institutions.

Approbation of the research results.

The dissertation was discussed and approved at a meeting of the Department of Civil Law Disciplines of the Faculty of Law. MM. Speransky GOU VPO "Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation". The results of the study were used in educational process on the law school them. MM. Speransky State Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation" during classes with students on the special course "Challenging the decisions of the general meeting of shareholders." The main content of the dissertation is reflected in three publications of the author.

Dissertation structure.

The structure of the work is determined by the subject and objectives of the study. The dissertation consists of an introduction, two chapters, including ten paragraphs, and a bibliography.

More on the topic Scientific and practical significance of the study.:

1. Theoretical and practical significance of the research.
2. Theoretical and practical significance of the results of the dissertation research

See also advice on writing a dissertation and advice to graduate students (including advice on preparing the introduction of a dissertation).

The relevance of the dissertation research, being, on the one hand, a characteristic of the current state of the issue studied in the dissertation and the need to solve urgent problems, on the other hand, it characterizes the author as a scientific researcher who is able to independently show and formulate the essence of the problem under study and its practical significance for the sectors of the economy of our country. Relevance is the basis for formulating the purpose and subject of the study, as well as the objectives of the study and the sequence of their solution. Usually, in the process of preparing the actuality, they follow the path from the general to the particular, linking this path with the title of the dissertation. That is, first given a brief description of industry for which the scientific problem is being solved. Among the problems facing the industry, according to the author, the most significant is singled out, the effectiveness in the successful solution of this problem is characterized, the causes of the problem are considered, after which a conclusion is made about the relevance of the issue being addressed.
Thus, as a result of the analysis of the relevance of the topic of the work, the object and subject of research are determined, and the wording of the object and subject of research should be consonant with the topic of the dissertation. To determine the purpose and objectives of the study, the following is an analysis of the scientific works of domestic and foreign authors devoted to the topic of the dissertation. Researchers are grouped according to the groups of issues under consideration, which, according to the author, are not sufficiently developed in their works, after which the need for further scientific research in this direction is formulated.
The next step is to formulate goals and research objectives.
The purpose of the dissertation practically repeats the title of the dissertation research with the addition at the beginning of the phrase: "to develop ..", or at the end of the phrase: "providing effective ...", etc.
When formulating research objectives it is necessary to clearly represent the stages of the study and set a clearly formulated task for each of them. When formulating tasks, turns are used: “to reveal the essence, “to formulate and justify”, “to identify factors”, “to consider”, “to analyze”, “to study”, “to develop”, “to determine the place”. At the end of the problem statement, it is recommended to indicate the purpose of the problem solution. In addition, it must be remembered that the formulated tasks determine the title and content of the main chapters and paragraphs of the dissertation.
Further, in the introduction, the theoretical and methodological base of the study is characterized in several sentences, which lists the scientific areas under consideration, and also characterizes the scientific methods used in the study.
When characterizing the information base of the study, the sources of information for conducting research are characterized.
Hypothesis (main idea of ​​the work). The formulation of the hypothesis is not an obligatory element and its presentation in the introduction is left to the discretion of the author. The hypothesis, being the main idea of ​​the work, is the author's vision of the way to achieve the goal set in the work. An example of the formulation of a hypothesis: "the justification of the parameters ... should be carried out on the basis of ...". The hypothesis as a result of the performed research can be confirmed or refuted. In the latter case, an in-depth analysis of the reasons for obtaining such a result is carried out.
The main provisions of the dissertation submitted for defense are confirmed constituent parts hypotheses. The main provisions are in fact scientific results obtained in the course of research, but having differences from previously performed works, that is, having scientific novelty. These can be: established patterns, methods that allow you to gain new knowledge, ways of teaching, educating, etc. That is, scientific provisions in the affirmative form confirm the author's prediction, his hypothesis based on the results of the research performed. Naturally, the last scientific position or the main scientific conclusion on the work should be consonant with the topic of the dissertation and confirm both the relevance and the correctness of the goal and objectives of the study.
Reliability of scientific provisions. In this section, one or two sentences list the specific results of scientific research (calculations of dynamics, comparisons, estimates, etc.) that confirm the results obtained during the research.
Scientific novelty . Scientific novelty is the main feature of the dissertation work, for which it is awarded in the end. academic degree. Scientific novelty can be formulated in one sentence. For example, the author could develop a technique that allows solving a problem that has not been solved before. However, in modern conditions of saturation of all areas of knowledge with scientific research, it is rather problematic to solve such a problem, and therefore the presence of elements of novelty is allowed in candidate dissertations. What is scientific novelty is a concept that allows the author to say that this has not happened before. But an unfounded statement about novelty is not enough, it is necessary that the wording sound: “characterized by the fact that ...”, “obtained for the first time ...”, “obtained for the first time ...”, or “it is proved that ...”, “analyzed ..., which allows, in contrast to from…” etc. The formulation of scientific novelty should be linked to the topic of the dissertation and include part of it.
Scientific significance research results should show the author's contribution to the development of scientific ideas in a particular area scientific knowledge, reveal the essence and mechanisms of the development of processes. serve as a basis for further scientific research.
Practical significance of the obtained results. This section provides information both about the development of the author, which he proposes for practical use, and about the actual use or the possibility and place of using the results of the work, and due to the fact that the development is new in both scientific and applied aspects, the possibility its application must be shown in both areas.
Approbation of the results of the dissertation. This section provides information about the reports and reports of the author at scientific conferences and other ways to familiarize the scientific community with the results of the dissertation work.
Publications. The section indicates the number of monographs, articles in scientific journals, collections of scientific papers, published abstracts of speeches at conferences.
Dissertation scope. The section provides information about the structure of the dissertation (introduction, number of chapters, conclusion, availability of applications), as well as the volume of the dissertation, the number of figures and tables, applications indicating their number.